Six months after three southwestern states struck a deal to keep more Colorado River water behind drought-shrunken Hoover Dam, those states face the first test of whether it’s enough to keep the region out of crisis. The arrival of the winter snow season, which sustains the river and last year bailed out water users facing critically low reservoirs, brings new questions for water managers: Will El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean produce a wet winter in the Southwest and parts of the Rockies? And could a second straight wet winter wallop the region with above-average snowfall and again forestall more drastic conservation measures?

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